Peyton's Problem

I don’t remember which two teams were playing, but I do remember something Bob Davie said about them during ESPN’s broadcast of the game. Davie said, “Both of these teams are so well prepared for this game that the offenses are successful because they are doing things they haven’t done all year.” At the time I thought it was the second stupidest thing I would ever hear a sportscaster say—I hope nothing ever surpasses George Foreman telling an HBO audience that Floyd Mayweather, Jr. should celebrate his grandmother passing out in the ring after a fight. When thinking about Peyton Manning’s postseason career, though, I can apply Davie’s stupid statement.

Peyton Manning is a studier. He knows your tendencies. He knows your strengths, your weaknesses, your likes, your dislikes. He has seen every play you have run in every situation. If you have ever done it, Peyton Manning has seen you do it. And he prepares accordingly. In addition to all of his physical talent, that study time is a huge reason for all the success Manning has had in the game of football.

Yet, since he entered the NFL, Peyton Manning’s teams are only 9-10 in the postseason. And for all the talk about how the Colts have rarely, if ever, had a good defense during the Manning era, Peyton’s Colts teams only average 22.37 points per postseason game (that average drops to 19.71 if you take out the two games against the Jake Plummer era Broncos). That is not championship quality offense.

People also talk about the inability of dome teams to perform outdoors in cold weather. But Manning’s Colts are only 6-4 at home in playoff games. Again removing those two games against the Broncos, the record drops to 4-4 with a 23.13 points per game average. Furthermore, with Manning at quarterback, the Colts have lost their first playoff game 7 times in 11 postseasons. 4 of those 7 losses were in Indianapolis. And only once in 4 tries have Manning’s Colts won a playoff game coming off a bye.

In only one of Manning’s four home playoff losses has the Colt defense allowed more than 21 points. Only 4 times in the 10 overall postseason losses has the other team topped 21 points during regulation. So while the defense hasn’t been great, it has not allowed a lot of points. No, when the Colts lose in the postseason, it is almost always because the offense comes up short.

How and why does this happen? To get the answer, I think you have to go back to his days at Tennessee.

During Manning’s years at Tennessee, the Volunteers and Florida Gators were the only contenders in the SEC. That allowed Bob Stoops, the Florida defensive coordinator during Manning’s junior and senior seasons, to prepare special defenses only to be used against the Vols. Going back to what I said at the beginning, Peyton Manning lined up to face a Florida Gators defense that did things he had never seen before. I’ll never forget the 1996 game. It was in Knoxville, and a lot of us thought it would finally be the year Tennessee beat Spurrier’s Florida team. But Peyton threw four interceptions in the first half, and it was all over. In 1997, a not-quite championship level Florida team gave Tennessee their only regular season loss. Again, Peyton threw multiple picks.

This is what happens in the NFL playoffs. Defensive coordinators must, must, must come up with new things for playoff games against the Colts. All the studying in the world doesn’t help Peyton Manning play against new defenses. Teams cannot devote the necessary time for newness during the regular season. In the postseason, when it’s do or die, they do it. This is why the Colts always struggle scoring postseason points.

Peyton Manning does not adjust quickly to new defenses. He needs time to study, think, and plot. There have plenty of jokes over the years about Manning being a robot, but he is computer like in a way. He does not improvise. He can only process the information that is given to him. When you present him with something he’s never processed before, he cannot compute.

Peyton Manning is the kid who shows up to the test, sees a problem he can’t figure out, and says, “This wasn’t in the text.”