McNabb's Return

It looks like it should be an easy Eagles victory on Sunday when Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia for the first time since becoming the Washington quarterback. Looking at McNabb and Andy Reid’s history, though, I think McNabb’s team will leave Philly with a double-digit victory. I’m thinking something along the lines of 27-17. Any other result would tell me one of two things: either McNabb really is done or the Eagles team is as much emotionally invested in beating McNabb as he is in defeating them.

Both McNabb and Reid are entering a game they’ve played many times. For the Washington quarterback, this is the game after people started to wonder if he really is the guy, if he still has it. Typically, this game becomes one of McNabb’s two or three best of the season. He looks great in this game. His passes are accurate in this game. This is the type of game that makes people think McNabb is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. He usually immediately follows this game with two or three duds in a row, but this game is almost always his.

McNabb played games like this a lot during his years as an Eagle. If we begin in McNabb’s third season, the year after his first playoff run, we can see how he responds when the hometown fans and media begin to doubt him:

November 29, 2001 The Eagles were coming off a bad loss at home to Washington, which dropped their record to 6-4. The next game was Thursday night game in Kansas City. The Eagles won easily while McNabb threw for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. His quarterback rating that night was 112.5. over the next three weeks, the Eagles went 2-1 while McNabb completed less than 55% of his passes.

September 16, 2002 The Eagles blew a double-digit lead in a bad loss to the Titans the previous week. McNabb followed that loss with a great performance in Washington while leading the Eagles to a thirty-point win. McNabb followed this win up with a great performance against the Cowboys. Then he had six bad games in a row.

November 17, 2002 The Eagles won four of the six bad games McNabb played. The final game, however, was a blowout loss at home to the Colts. The whispers about McNabb started popping up again. In the following game against the Cardinals, he completed 80% of his passes and threw for four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he broke his foot in that game and missed the rest of the regular season.

September 28, 2003 It’s easy to forget this now, but the Eagles lost the first two games at Lincoln Financial Field. They scored a combined ten points in those games to begin the season 0-2. The Bills were 2-0, including a 38-0 win over the Patriots. Few gave the Eagles a chance in Buffalo, but they won easily. After that game, it would be another month before McNabb threw for more than 200 yards in a game.

December 27, 2003 A week earlier, the Eagles blew a home game against a bad 49ers team that diminished their chances at gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In the regular season finale in Washington, McNabb led a blowout victory by completing 72% of his passes for three touchdowns and no interceptions. The ensuing playoffs were not good, though.

November 27, 2008 This Thanksgiving night game against the Cardinals came on the heels of a 0-2-1 stretch for the Eagles. McNabb had been benched at halftime of the previous game. If this game had been played on Sunday instead of Thursday, McNabb probably would not have had the chance to start. He did start, however, and completed 69% of his passes for 4 touchdowns, no turnovers, and a 121.7 rating. This game is the one outlier, as McNabb only had one bad game the rest of that season.

McNabb had many other games like this. I identify the 2004 game in Dallas after the Eagles were blown out in Pittsburgh, the 2006 game in San Francisco, the Detroit game in 2007, the 2007 game in Washington, the 49er game in 2008, and last year’s game in Chicago.

This is his pattern; this is what he does. Doubts rise, he plays magnificently, and then he falls back into his normal routine. I’ve seen it a dozen times or more. Now the fans in the District get a chance to see it, too.

For the Eagle head coach, this is the home game against a lesser team immediately following decisive road victory that greatly increased his team’s confidence. Eagle fans will tell you they always dread this game. They often lose this game. When they do win, it’s always closer than it should be. By my count, when Andy Reid’s Eagles have a home game against a team that finishes the season no better than 8-8 the week after a blowout road victory, they are 4-4. Two of those losses happen to be to Washington teams that ended up 8-8.

Maybe Michael Vick and the Eagles young skill players can overcome these trends. If McNabb has anything left, however, he will show it this weekend.